Combine that with a steady pace of monthly job gains, a historically-low unemployment rate of 3.7%, and inflation under 4%, and it looks like a soft landing is in view.
But according to a list of recession indicators from ClearBridge Investments, a downturn is still likely in the months ahead.
The Conference BoardThen there's wage growth, which is also declining at a pace typically seen in recessionary environments.
On a three-month moving average basis, median wage growth has fallen to 5.2% in December 2023 from 6.7% in August 2022.
With the economy holding strong in recent months, consensus has swung heavily back in favor of a soft landing.
Persons:
Jeff Schulze, Schulze, Louis Fed, Louis, That's
Organizations:
Business, ClearBridge Investments, Fourth, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Louis Fed