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Read previewThe labor market smashed expectations in January, adding 353,000 new jobs, far above economist forecasts of 187,000. Despite the strong headline number, however, there are signs that the job market is deteriorating beneath the surface. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey is showing some divergence from its payroll survey. "High labor and credit costs are beginning to materially impact corporate profits, which impacts both the labor market and (eventually) the default rate." Still, while there are signs of weakening, there are also signs of improvement in the labor market.
Persons: , Jeff Schulze, today's, Shulze, Louis Fed, Lance Roberts, Ian Shepherdson, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor, ClearBridge Investments, RIA Advisors, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Bank of America's Global, New York Life Investments, ClearBridge
Combine that with a steady pace of monthly job gains, a historically-low unemployment rate of 3.7%, and inflation under 4%, and it looks like a soft landing is in view. But according to a list of recession indicators from ClearBridge Investments, a downturn is still likely in the months ahead. The Conference BoardThen there's wage growth, which is also declining at a pace typically seen in recessionary environments. On a three-month moving average basis, median wage growth has fallen to 5.2% in December 2023 from 6.7% in August 2022. With the economy holding strong in recent months, consensus has swung heavily back in favor of a soft landing.
Persons: Jeff Schulze, Schulze, Louis Fed, Louis, That's Organizations: Business, ClearBridge Investments, Fourth, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Louis Fed
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEven as the labor market softens the Fed won't be pivoting anytime soon, says Clearbridge's SchulzeMimi Duff, GenTrust managing director and Jeff Schulze, Clearbridge Investments chief investment strategist join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action and what's ahead for the U.S. economy.
Persons: Clearbridge's Schulze Mimi Duff, GenTrust, Jeff Schulze Organizations: Clearbridge Investments Locations: U.S
Markets are now focused on U.S. jobs data due at 0830 EST (1230 GMT), the most significant macroeconomic release of the week, for more cues on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. European mining stocks (.SXPP) increased 4.4%, boosted by a Bloomberg report China is working on new measures to support its property market. Copper prices were heading for their first weekly gain since April with other metals trading higher too. Spot gold was up marginally at $1,979 an ounce, but set for its biggest weekly gain in nearly two months, as a softer dollar and lower yields bolstered the bullion's appeal. Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Kim Coghill, Sriraj Kalluvila and Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid LONDON, Jefferson, Jeff Schulze, payrolls, Philip Jefferson, Joe Biden, Phil Shucksmith, We've, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln, Kim Coghill, Sriraj Kalluvila, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Labor, U.S . Senate, Bloomberg, Asia Pacific, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Senate, Newton Investment, Investors, U.S . Treasury, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Japan
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